Campaigns for 2019 General Elections in Nigeria: the fear of Armageddon!

Commentary

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC in Nigeria on Sunday, November 18, 2018 officially lifted the curtain over campaigns for presidential and gubernatorial elections taking place in the country in February 2019. Accordingly, the major contenders for the presidential slot have promptly come out with their manifestoes and they are very quickly offering them to the electorate.

There are 36 States in the Nigerian Federation. Presumably, candidates of vying for the office of governor in the States will before long issue their own manifestoes too. You can however be sure that the main focus will be on the two main candidates in the presidential race. The incumbent President of the country, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC is being challenged for the office by Atiku Abubakar, a two-term Vice President who is now contesting under the People’s Democratic Party, PDP. Atiku had earlier left the party but returned recently to pick the presidential candidate ticket of the party at its convention in Port Harcourt, capital of Rivers State.

This is another occasion when the leading presidential candidates in an election in Nigeria would come from the same ethnic group. It was Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military head of state versus Olu Falae both of them Yoruba from the Southwest back in 1999 at the beginning of the present democratic dispensation. Now the two aforementioned candidates in the 2019 presidential race are Fulanis from the northern part of the country.

On the surface of it, the campaigns and the election itself should not be rancorous. With due regard to other contestants in the election, it is almost certain that either of the two men is most likely to emerge victorious. However, the matter may not be as easy as the proverbial ‘a, b, c’. PDP had ruled the country for 16 years—1999 to 2015. APC, a quick coalition formed before 2015 general election successfully wrestled power from PDP. For the last three and a half years or so, APC had labelled PDP as the party that wasted its tenure while in control at the centre in terms of abasence of physical development (infrastructure) of the country. APC also focused its attention on revelations of how money was taken from the national treasury and distributed among PDP party loyalists coupled with cases of corruption in high and low offices.

As for PDP that now found itself in opposition, the current APC government has been tagged as inept, without focus and being responsible for the pangs of poverty that the party says have ravaged the ranks of the ordinary Nigerians. Employment/unemployment figures are not easy come by in this country. Even then, PDP has continued to hold the APC government responsible for the loss of millions of jobs since it came into power in 2015. It has in addition continued to drum its observation that the Buhari administration has had nothing to show as its achievements over the last three and a half years.

The sorts of accusations and counter accusations mentioned above will dominate the current campaigns. Politicians bent on winning at any cost will be vehement in maintaining their divergent views even when they may not be objective in their judgments. APC says it is moving from its slogan for 2015 elections which was ‘change’ to ‘progress’ in the 2019 elections. President Buhari says he will move Nigerians ‘to the next level’ from 2019. Atiku chose ‘Get Nigeria Working Again’ as his own campaign slogan.

The posture of PDP in the coming elections is to take power from APC because in its own opinion, the party in power has grounded Nigeria economically. On the other hand, APC is reminding Nigerians that they should not allow PDP to rule this country again on account of what it called the party’s poor overall performance while in power for 16 years.

With this kind of contest for power, will the campaign be conducted in an orderly manner and the election itself peaceful, free and fair? The European Union, the United States of America and Britain have admonished Nigerian politicians to eschew violence in the weeks ahead. Recall that the then President of the United States, Barack Obama had to directly address the people of Nigeria prior to the 2015 general election because the forecast at that time was that the election might degenerate into uncontrollable violence. The peaceful transition that ensued was believed to have saved the country from what was tending towards political stalemate with possibility of violence in its wake as predicted.

From all indications, this coming election will be fought with everything at the disposal of Nigerian politicians because a lot is at stake in holding political office in this country. As usual, the ordinary citizens will be at the receiving end. Against this pessimism let us hope that wise counsel will prevail and the country will be saved from another ordeal of conducting election even when we know that elections are crucial for the strengthening and growth of democracy in a nation like ours.

Written by Atilade Atoyebi